(The Center Square) — New York City lost tens of thousands of higher-earning residents in the wake of the pandemic, who fled the state and took billions of dollars of income with them, according to a new report.
The report by the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan watchdog group, found that the state’s net population decline started in 2017 and plummeted during the pandemic, with nearly a million residents between April 2020 and July 2022 leaving the state.
The report’s authors noted that the Big Apple saw a population increase in 2023 and 2024, spurred on by an influx of migrants, which has helped reverse declines from outmigration. New York City has been overwhelmed by a surge of more than 230,000 migrants over the past two years following a historic rise in immigration along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Many of the New York transplants fled to Florida, taking $13.7 billion in personal income with them, according to the report. New Yorkers also fled to the state’s suburbs on Long Island and Westchester County, as well as nearby states like New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. Others moved to California and Texas, the report’s authors said.
Among those who left the city, the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration policy, affordability concerns, quality of life issues and work opportunities were the main reasons, according to the report.
“The people leaving New York City may be choosing a place offering them a higher value proposition through a better mix of quality of life and cost of living,” the report states. “Notably, Florida and Texas have lower taxes. While New Jersey and the rest of New York State have relatively high taxes — even if lower than New York City — they apparently offer amenities making the choice to leave worth it for some.”
The exact loss of the state’s tax coffers is difficult to gauge because New Yorkers are taxed at variable rates depending on their income. New York City’s top earners are taxed at 14.776%, which includes the state’s 10.9% rate and the city’s 3.876% rate – the highest top-tier tax rate in the nation.
However, the decline continues a trend that critics attribute to the state’s high cost of living, a pressing housing shortage and other issues prompting exits.
A recent report estimated that New York’s population could shrink by about 2 million over the next 25 years because of low fertility rates and aging, unless those losses are offset by foreign or domestic immigration.
New York Republicans have long argued that outmigration is driven largely by the state’s highest-in-the-nation tax burden, a business sector struggling under excessive regulations and rising labor costs.
The report’s authors suggested that the findings are a wake-up call for New York City, which said its long-term success depends on its ability to stay competitive and attract and retain residents and businesses.
“New York City is at an inflection point,” the report’s authors wrote. “Ensuring New York City can compete for residents and businesses is paramount, especially considering the evolving economy, affordability challenges, and well-founded concerns about the quality of life, public services, and public safety.”
