Autumn is known for its shorter days, colorful leafy landscapes and cool, crisp nights, but anyone looking forward to these fall staples may need to wait a little longer this year as summer will linger across much of the United States.
The autumnal equinox will mark the official changing of the seasons with fall kicking off on Tuesday, Sept. 22, at 9:30 a.m. EDT. This may seem like a long time away, but AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters has been busy for weeks analyzing global weather patterns and different forecasting tools to paint a picture of what weather will unfold across the United States in the coming months. The team is led by Paul Pastelok, a senior meteorologist who has been with AccuWeather for nearly three decades.
One big factor for the 2020 U.S. fall forecast is the development of La Niña. This is a phenomenon in which the ocean near the equator of the Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal, a change that can influence the global weather pattern. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño.
Even with the changing of the seasons in September, it may still feel like summer for many across the U.S. as warm weather holds strong over much of the country.
Northeast, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
It has been a hot summer for much of the Midwest and Northeast, and the heat is showing no signs of stopping through the first part of fall.
“The heat waves that we’ve seen that have been very impressive over the summer season are going to linger into September,” Pastelok said. This could mean more 90-degree days for cities that have roasted in the summer heat, especially along the Interstate 95 corridor.
With warm weather forecast to persist across the Northeast through the first part of fall, residents may not have to worry about snow or needing winter coats until after Halloween.
“The chance of any snow across the north is going to be very late. In fact, the freeze potential is very late this year,” Pastelok said. For many, this means the first flurries may not fly until mid- to late November.
However, Pastelok warned that if there is an Arctic outbreak, the cold air flowing over the unusually warm waters of the Great Lakes could cause a “significant” lake-effect snow event. This includes Buffalo and Watertown, New York.