Portions of the Northeast that will largely miss out on any snow from the first disturbance late Monday, will get blanketed with several inches of snow from the second, stronger storm. This will primarily focus on northern Pennsylvania and much of upstate New York into New England.
“There is likely to be a narrow swath of 6- to 12-inch snowfall totals in the Northeast as well, but confidence remains low on exactly where that stripe will occur,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
“It does seem increasingly likely it will be from around the New York/Pennsylvania border northeastward through the Berkshires and Green and White Mountains.”
Sandwiched in between the snow and rain will be a corridor of potentially significant icing. Portions of central and eastern Pennsylvania and the central Appalachians into southern New England can have up to a quarter of an inch of icy glaze on elevated surfaces like hand railings, trees, and power lines. Any untreated surfaces would also become very slippery.
“Around a quarter of an inch of ice on trees and power lines is enough to begin causing some damage and can lead to some localized power outages,” Miller said.
The storm may begin as snow or sleet in Philadelphia and New York City later Monday or Monday evening, but a fairly quick transition to rain is anticipated.
A swath of disruptive snow and ice will stretch from the mid-Mississippi Valley through the Northeast during the first part of this week. The wintry weather will come courtesy of a couple of disturbances shifting eastward out of the central part of the nation.
The first, bringing snow and ice and disrupting travel, sporting events and holiday shopping in the Plains on Sunday, will move east through the Ohio Valley Sunday night. By Monday morning, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will arrive in the mid-Atlantic.
By Monday afternoon, some light snow and sleet will arrive from central New Jersey into the Tri-State area around New York City. This first round of snow and ice will dissipate Monday night in lieu of a new system taking shape behind it to the west.
The second system will be stronger, developing Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley. While severe thunderstorms take shape across parts of the Southeast, another round of snow and ice will develop on the storm’s northern edge, impacting many of the same areas as the first round.
This system will then continue to strengthen as it moves into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast starting Monday night and Tuesday.
“The stronger storm will be more effective at drawing milder air northward later Monday into Tuesday,” explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister. “Places that see some wintry precipitation early Monday, like Baltimore and Philadelphia, will change to plain rain later Monday into Tuesday.”