After what has been an often dreary year for many Americans, a white Christmas sounds like it might be the least Mother Nature could do to cheer up a few holiday hearts. With Christmas just four weeks away — can you believe it? — some may be starting to wish for a little snow on the big day.
For some Americans, those wishes may come true! For many others, however, a lackluster year will be topped off by a grassy landscape come Christmastime.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok has been putting together long-range forecasts for decades. He believes some portions of the country could receive some snow for Christmas.
Pastelok is AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range forecaster and when he begins considering which areas may be more or less likely to see a white Christmas, he first refers to the historical maps.
The map pictured below shows the historical probability that at least one inch of snow will be on the ground at Christmas, based on a 30-year data set. Not surprisingly, places in the northern tier of the country are shaded in dark blue because they have a 75% or higher chance of seeing snow at Christmas.
This map shows the historical probability, based on 30-year averages, of a white Christmas across the U.S. using the National Weather Service’s benchmark of an inch of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25. (AccuWeather / NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center)
Similarly, places like Florida, southwestern Arizona and a long sliver of the California coast have, statistically speaking, no chance of snow at Christmas.
Then, Pastelok starts factoring in the elements that will impact weather patterns, allowing him to hone in on a final forecast.
The map pictured below shows the places in the U.S. that Pastelok predicts will have the best chances of enjoying a white Christmas. He said the 2020 probabilities were based on comparisons with historical likelihood.
“Percentages are normally high in the central Rockies and northern Plains,” Pastelok said, referring to regions that cover Colorado and Utah, and the Dakotas, eastern Montana and western Minnesota, respectively. “So, it’s pretty likely that those areas will have a white Christmas.”
For the typically warm interior Southwest, Pastelok said white Christmas chances are even lower than historically normal.
Hopes for some holiday weather magic may not be dashed everywhere, including some locations where odds are typically lower. Along the East Coast, big cities in the mid-Atlantic and in the Northeast, like New York City and Boston, don’t typically have snow on the ground come Christmas morning. However, the scenario could be different this year, Pastelok said. “This year, there’s just a slightly better chance, because of the storm situation setup, that Boston and New York City could have a little bit of snow,” Pastelok said.
However, an early-season mild pattern in the area could foil those chances. “I’m not ready to throw it on the map just yet,” he said. “But there’s a better chance this year.”
All of that considered, even though it may not snow on or about Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in many places, Pastelok emphasized that many places across the interior Northeast — like in the mountainous areas — and near the Great Lakes are likely to have snow on the ground from previous snow events when Christmas comes.
Still, as Pastelok noted, even though the accepted benchmark for a white Christmas is one inch of snow, sometimes all it takes to bring about that fabled Christmas ambiance is just a few snowflakes swirling around in the cold air.
“For me, if it snows on Christmas — even if it flakes,” Pastelok quipped, “it’s a white Christmas.
