Weather

Message Summary: ...below average flood potential through march 5...
This is the fourth in the series of regularly scheduled hydrologic outlooks issued during the winter and spring season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of river flood potential (not flash flooding) across central new york and northeast pennsylvania for the next two weeks...february 20th to march 5th.
...summary...
Although snow cover has increased across the central new york basins, snow depths and water equivalent remain generally only near to below average in most locations, and especially across northeast pennsylvania. The major rivers and headwater tributaries are running slightly higher than typical for this time of year, but there is no significant ice cover. Ground states remain unusually moist and partially frozen. With a lack of significant rainfall, or warmer than seasonally average temperatures expected for the next two weeks, the overall assessment of the flood potential for the nws binghamton hydrologic outlook area is below average.
...current conditions...
.chemung basin...
.precipitation (past 14 days): above average. .snow cover: below average. Local areas near average. .snow water equivalent: below average. Local areas near average. .14-day average streamflow: average to above average .river ice: below normal. No ice. .ground state: very moist. Partially frozen. .north branch susquehanna basin (ny)...
.precipitation (past 14 days): above average. .snow cover: below average. Local headwaters above average. .snow water equivalent: below average. Local headwaters above average. .14-day average streamflow...above average. .river ice...below normal. No ice. .ground state... Very moist. Partially frozen. .upper main stem susquehanna basin (pa)...
.precipitation (past 14 days)...above average. .snow cover...below average. .water equivalent...below average. .14-day average streamflow...above average. .river ice...below normal. No ice. .ground state...unusually moist. Partially frozen. .upper delaware basin...
.precipitation (past 14 days)...above average. .snow cover...below average. .water equivalent...below average. .14-day avg. Streamflow...much above average. .river ice...below normal. No ice. .reservoir levels...above the long term median. .ground state...unusually moist. Partially frozen. .oswego drainage / finger lakes...
.precipitation (past 14 days)...above average. .snow cover...below average. .water equivalent...below average. .14-day average streamflow...average. .river ice...below normal. No ice. .lake levels...normal winter pools. .ground state...extremely moist. Partially frozen.
...forecast outlook...
.future weather conditions: the official 6 to 14 day outlook indicates colder than seasonal mean temperatures and above average precipitation. Ensemble mean forecast guidance confirms a colder than usual temperature outlook, but suggests only a near to below average precipitation profile through march 5th. .long range river modeling and probability forecasts: the ensemble of river forecast system guidance suggests a limited chance (10% or less chance) of minor flooding through early march at some of the more sensitive headwater basins of the susquehanna and upper delaware basins. When comparing current hydrologic forecast modeling against historical flows, most basins were indicating an average to below average risk of flooding into the first week of march.
...in conclusion...
This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which contribute to flooding. It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur from snow melt alone. Rainfall is the most important factor in determining the occurrence and severity of flooding in our area. The next winter/spring flood outlook will be issued by this office on march 5th 2020. If conditions change in the interim: flood watches, warnings or advisories will be issued as necessary.